The euro area has been Draghi'd into the future--and German newspapers are certainly kicking and screaming.
The
Bild called the European Central Bank's rescue plan a “Blank Cheque for
Debtor States” and the front page of Die Welt said “Financial Markets
Rejoice at the Death of the Bundesbank”.
The Süddeutsche Zeitung
remarked that "Rescuing the euro at any price could be an economic
disaster--that is the red line that must not be crossed. The other limit
is the law: In a community based on law, the ends can never justify the
means. A euro community that is based on constantly breaching treaties
is built on a shaky foundation. On Thursday, the ECB unfortunately
crossed both red lines....The crisis countries are not out of the woods
yet. And that means that if the ECB provides them with unlimited help,
then it is financing unsound states. It can only do so by printing ever
more money. Ultimately, there will be the threat of bubbles, crises and
inflation. It will benefit speculators, and the vast majority of
citizens will have to foot the bill."
And from the Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung: "Draghi has made it clear that, from now on, the ECB
will only buy bonds when a crisis-hit country asks for help from the
euro rescue fund or agrees to other conditions. But that promise isn't
new. The would-be saviors of the euro have been insisting on structural
reforms for years. The recipients of aid make promises but often do not
keep them. But what will the ECB do if, say, Italy does not carry out
the labor market reforms it has promised? Is it going to start selling
Italian bonds? It can't if it takes its own argument seriously, that
monetary policy in the euro zone no longer functions properly.
"The
leaders of southern euro-zone countries should be happy: they can
continue to borrow at low interest rates and do not need to worry about
finding investors. But the northern leaders are satisfied, too, because
they can hide behind the ECB and do not need to face uncomfortable
questions in, say, the Bundestag about all the additional risks that
Germany is taking on. In the euro zone, there is no longer a distinction
between monetary and fiscal policy."
This dichotomy between
German dread and giddiness in the markets is dangerous. But perhaps more
importantly, the yield-dampening effect of the ECB's programme may give
peripheral-country governments more time to delay the reforms that are
so badly needed.
If structural adjustments are not successfully
implemented, the crisis could grow to afflict the entire euro area in
the future. And by then, Germany's patience may have run out.
In
other words, instead of giving peripheral countries the Beastie Boys'
license to ill, the ECB may be providing them with James Bond's license
to kill.
Thus, today's
euphoria in the markets is quite likely to give way to a more sober
assessment of the long-term risks in the coming days and weeks. One
suspects that the euro will quickly reassume its role as a funding
vehicle for the carry trade--and that market-entry opportunities will be
created on both sides of the currency in the process.
No comments:
Post a Comment